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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important! Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent. You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
Again within 24 hours of trying to work out a way to make this sustainable and workable for everyone I've noticed it's not worth the hassle to do so. It seems a lot of you expect everything for nothing. I'm afraid that is not going to work for me. Nothing I am doing is free for me, and if people do not want to pitch in the tiniest bit to help with that I can only conclude one of two things; 1 - The info is not worth $50 to you. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. 2 - People are ungrateful. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. If people were willing to meet me half way, I'd have went a lot further. People seem to want to stand where they are and shout over to me I'm a scammer for not bringing it all to their feet. That's a perspective. You can have it. I do not mind. But if this is your talk, I'll trade in silence. I'll also show you what happens with the "Scammy" info I was going to provide you for $50. In the week ahead I'll set up an account with a similar amount to the amount of money people seem to think it's egregious to ask for, and I'll run the same trades on this as will be in the trading plans shared in the proposed offer. I'll use recognised results tracking programs that will automatically verify and display the results. Build up phase: I'll start with currency trades. These are the lowest barrier to entry since I can trade micro lots and also have access to leverage. Currency trades should give me about 400 'pips' margin of error. Realistically, I should not need more than 40. I think SPX will be up 2 - 4% next week, this should give gains to on the Aussie against the Swiss (AUDCHF) - I'll go long AUDCHF. Margin up phase: After the currency trades I should have enough to trade SPX. I'll start to position short on SPX around 3080 and I'll take a first target of 2377. Given the right setups I'll add to my SPX short as prices are falling to bulk up the net take profit on the trade if it works. I'll trail my stops on the first trades to mke sure I'm not increasing my risk . Big up phase: By this time I should have enough margin to trade the Dow. Here I can make some real money. Around 21,000 I'll start to short the Dow and I'll be targeting 10,000. This trade should pay me somewhere in the region of $50,000 per traded lot. During the move I should be able to build up a position of at least 4 - 5 lots on the margin I have. Should be over $200,000 if it hits. Cash flow up phase: Once the drop has happened, I will begin to go long and do it in ways that will generate me daily income. I'll do this by transferring about $100K into options account and selling puts for 100 SPY. I'll also switch back to currency trades and I'll engage in what are known as "Carry trades", these will pay me every day I hold the trade based upon the "Swap". The best carry trades will depend upon what respective interest rates are at the time. Assuming things are similar (relatively) to how they currently are, I will be buying the Aussie, Kiwi and Turkish currencies and I'll be selling them against the dollar and Yen. This will be long AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and short USDTRY. I'll allocate $50,000 to carry trades. I'll use the remaining money to hedge and offset risks/losses on my cash flow trades if that is needed, and if not I will use it to make similar trades but ones based upon a short time frame and geared towards risk:reward based profit rather than passive cash flow. I'll keep doing this until the Dow is back to around 17,000 - 18,000. Crash cash phase: For the next phase of the drop I will again switch to trading the Dow. This is where I can make most money. I might also allocate $100 - 200K to OTM puts, but since this can be a slower more steady crash it will make more sense to build a position in the CFD market on the Dow. Again my Dow trade should pay over $50,000 per lot. This time building up over 20 lots should be fairly easy. Cash flow decade phase: Once the market has crashed I will start to become a big options seller. i'll also engage in carry trades if interest rates are not all screwed up (Which is there are 'currency wars' they could be). Being able to be on the right side of a carry trade will determine if this is viable or not - and that has some variables that can not be known at this time. I'd love to be able to just short USDTRY, though. If it's viable. With options, I will be selling both put options and call options. I think once the crash has happened we will enter into a long term theta market last 10 - 15 years - this period is known as a 'Lost decade)'. I'll sell SPY puts for under the lows and I'll also sell SPY calls each time there is jumps in upside volatility. I'll be happy to sell SPY calls for 200 for literally years on end. By this time I should have more than $50. I'll update my swing plans either bi-weekly, weekly or monthly. Pending on how much free time I have. I'll edit this post to add in the results tracking material when I set it up. Update: Here's the tracking link. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/2020sBeasomething-for-nothing/6040046 I set the copy software to invert trades & the first trades went short AUDCHF rather than long. That puts me on quite a substantial losing start, but it should not matter. Might push the start of SPX trades back a week. Probably won't. Let me just show the value of what I've been trying to teach you.
https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15 Download PDF of this article here:https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company. Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound. In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it! Stock code: 5199.KL Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199 Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as: · looking for oil, · drawing it out of the ground, and · selling it on global oil markets. This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020). https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684 https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields. Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices. At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)
To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production. In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below: As defined by the SPE PRMS,Reservesare “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.) Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:) - A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria;- A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development;- Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and- Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated. Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below: -Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and)-Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes. In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes: - Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate;- Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and- High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded. Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”. However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation: https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78 Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022). Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl. In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources. https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604 The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl). This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million). However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus. To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. North Sabah oil field https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field. For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are: · Average uptime · Total oil sold · Average realized oil price · Average OPEX per bbl With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields. Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime. As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross. We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl. Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl. Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures: · Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl Anasuria oil field https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field: · Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
Valuation (Method 1)
Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data: https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2 Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x. Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant: https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2 From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices. Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
Valuation (Method 2)
Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another. As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it. https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8 From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet). Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit: https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves ofRM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price. However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that. Intangible Assets I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet. As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion). https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all? To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs: E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets. E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.) Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment. On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following: Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).) So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate. Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required. So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following: Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116)) Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation? Fortunately, we find just that on page 185: 17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED) (a Anasuria Cluster) The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.) The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows: (i Discount rate of 10%;) (ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;) (iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,) (iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.) Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount. (b North Sabah) The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements. The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year. Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field. How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billionapproximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves. To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves
RM 1.452 billion
RM 1.468 billion
By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis. For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business. https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b Income Statement First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m. Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32). https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60 This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m). Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later. Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis. Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment. Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense. https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8 Balance Sheet The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity. We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again. Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations. Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes. Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020) Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m. Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes. The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large. We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m. Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices. Cash Flow Statement There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern. Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI. Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are: · Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time · Fluctuation of exchange rates · Customer concentration risk · 2P Reserves being less than estimated · Significant current and non-current liabilities · Potential issuance of equity Oil prices remaining subdued Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing. Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51 The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36. Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green). Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing. Customer Concentration Risk With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished. 2P Reserves being less than estimated 2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’). Significant non-current and current liabilities The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern. Potential issuance of equity Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years. Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out. However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below: · Increased Daily Oil Production Rate · Inclusion of 2C Resources · Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Increased Daily Oil Production Rate The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production. The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward. By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day). Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day). This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet. Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day. While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations. Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates: Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159 The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates. The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day. Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above. 2C Resources Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates. To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil. https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil. Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY21 (incl. 2C)
Daily oil production (bbl/day)
Average oil price (USD/bbl)
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)
EBITDA (RM ‘m)
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20. For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby. Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented). Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years. When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.
Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
Ethereum is traded on all cryptocurrency exchanges, as it is the main altcoin. The most popular trading platforms are Binance and BitMEX. To store ether, you need to have a wallet, such as MyEtherWallet. If you plan to trade, there is no need to buy cryptocurrency through exchangers, but you can buy it on the exchange directly - Binance added support for ruble and currency pairs, including ETH/RUB.
How to trade
The Ethereum price chart is represented by the Trading View resource, which is integrated into the Trade-mate.io service. In your account you can connect three exchanges Binance, BitMEX and Poloniex. In addition to advanced Tradingview charts service provides smart trade functionality with trailing stops and autotrade, allowing you to copy trades of other traders and trading bots. The Ethereum volatility allows you to use any classic strategies inherited from Forex. If the foreign exchange market has long acquired immunity to technical analysis, the crypto market allows you to make a profit due to the immaturity of the industry. The most popular trading indicators are Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Levels, RSI and others. A detailed description is easy to find on the Internet, but do not forget about the main rule - set up stop losses, because any cryptocurrency can collapse by 20% or more in a few hours. Trade-mate.io will help to extract the maximum profit, because smart trade allows you to automatically rearrange the stop loss as long as the price rises.
I feel I could have done much better this week. The retracement of GPJPY on Friday from the 132.15 high got me out of the week at a profit, but I really think I should have done better. I'll spend the whole weekend dissecting my trades and working out where I may have made mistakes and where I can improve upon these. Part of my reason for joining here was to teach things that work for me, and to learn about things working for others. The best thing for me is for people to provide well thought out and well presented suggestions on ways I can improve upon weaknesses. I've always made my bigger major breakthroughs in trading based on this. Small observations, well explained by people who know what they're talking about. I've had it said to me many times here that I can not take criticism, but that's not true. I assure you, I'll be 1,000 times more critical of my mistakes that anyone else. I will still be working on them long after others forget them. What I am not interested in is comments I've got here that usually amount to, "You're stupid, and I think I am a better person than you". I'm not here to learn how to be egotistical, I already know how to do that. In this post I'll discuss how trading reversals, and particularly how I traded shorts on GBPJPY this week. I'll start by doing a run through of the trades I took. Thing started well, shorting on Monday 129 - 128.25 (Here my sell was stopped out right before it dropped 100 more pips, so I was not happy with this winning trade. I view it as 100 pips loss in some ways). Then I bought the low of 127 with a 128 target, but took profit and reversed 127.40. Stopped out this trade, and sold 128. Stopped out, and sold 128.50. Stopped out, and decided to stop selling. Worked on a more developed plan in case the market continued to go up. Bought 130 area, and took profit 131. 131.50 area started selling again, got some stop outs. Sold high 132.15. All my stops were 10 - 20 pips. Very tight for this pair. Where I'm going to focus here is 131.50 - 132 area. Getting stopped out for 10 pips when the market goes up 300 more is fine for me. I can work on filtering these trades, but as far as I'm concerned I am losing these well. Someone commented on one my GBPJPY sells signals from 128.50 saying I was "Rekt" when it went to 130 ... but I got out for 15 pips. This is exactly the type of useless "feedback" that's obviously worth ignoring. Hopefully this post can be a more constructive conversation. So here is where I am starting to sell GBPJPPY and getting spiked out. I call myself out on the mistake I am making. https://preview.redd.it/g3k0sfndi1l31.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfc6b9c8afeea66a4292301c5b3f143062bf02f7 I then took up my own advice, set some limits. Took some more nominal stop losses for 10 pips or less and got in a good trade 132.15. https://preview.redd.it/87xbdrhcj1l31.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=33ca2e15bbe216f9fb3fe1b00e885a1c63aaafea https://preview.redd.it/4rmiujljj1l31.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=7103dfefb681d8db748cefd3c6ab0fcae2b5fd2b Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/czyoo6/i_think_a_huge_gbpjpy_sell_is_due/ez7any5/ I added to my sell 132, 132.05 and 131.90. The end result of this was profitable, but I know I can do better. This is one of my known areas of improvement. I'd be interested in sharing ideas and thoughts with people on how to improve here. These have to be comprehensive, though. Including entries, exits and Rprobability assessments. Saying things that amount to cliches and catchphrases do not help. I've also thought of the obvious things.
Options for Trading Reversals
So now we'll get onto some of the options we have to trade this move, and the risks and rewards we get in each one. I've covered what I've done here. My risk is I am going to invariably get whipsaw stop outs, have to re-enter a few times and have random people telling me I got "rekt". I can deal with all of these, because I'm getting into RR situations that have 10 - 20 + pay outs with the ways I structure positions, add to winning trades and trail stops. I need to be successful something like 7% of the time doing this, and I am successful more than that. Makes sense, to me. These are the other ways of trading this I am interested in speaking about. https://preview.redd.it/namn0aahl1l31.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=02a972ce8f8f42110fb0a3eccf7122950cda68ba We'll take them one at a time, and I will explain these setups as I think the people are saying to trade them. If I'm wrong, kindly correct me. I'm just basing this on what people who usually say this give when asked to elaborate (assuming they do). So here is number one. We wait for a sell signal. https://preview.redd.it/4x504q3ul1l31.png?width=1342&format=png&auto=webp&s=109a2440bd4a424c1e2577ab3ad69fcc76dd7ccb What now? How do we enter? If we enter at the low, we're fair game for stop hunting unless we use the highs. Inside of the swing down leg we can expect price to trade in there, even if it's going to fall more. So if we enter after the signal, we have high stop out probabilities unless above the high. Above the high, we have usually 80 - 100 pip stop. So it seems this is not offering the same RR if we assume the market does top and then fall 500 pips. It's a less profitable trade, or the same, even accounting for it having higher win rate. Our second option is to wait for the retrace and limit in. This is a great trade. https://preview.redd.it/rumv8utfm1l31.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=16245690beae9c11d10dc569f1e83e251127db6f Trouble is, this does not always happen. The retrace is not always predictable. So when we use this method, our reward is good entries, good RR, "confirmed" signal. Our risk is missing a big move. For the highly risk adverse, this is probably ideal, but for those who can take small losses for a big win, this is not optimum. Our other option is to place sell stops, so we enter into momentum. I've shown the areas for this in red. https://preview.redd.it/kfyaqwsxm1l31.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=b35911a87fe57e2ae1c153d368da2ea905f761c9 We have the same issue on RR. Where to place the stops. Has to be above the high, really. Or we have the same risk of small stop outs we have in my method, but we have a worse price. Here I've circled all the points these alternative confirmed entry strategies flag up sells. https://preview.redd.it/1zu6ydkcn1l31.png?width=819&format=png&auto=webp&s=184d17cb15574dccf5aa849b0cac74a36fd42f86 On all occasions using the breakout rules, they enter at almost the worst possible price. On the retrace rules, they enter at good price but lose. My trades have engaged the same levels of this (apart from me stopping selling before the 129 trap). I've lost 10 -20 pips on them, and these other signals generated losses of 60 - 80 pips. Same bets, same levels. 1/4 losses, and 400% more RR per trade. Could those who have different ways in which they approach these reversals explain their rational for it in the same way I've went through mine here? 1 - What the entry signals is. 2 - Where to enter. 3 - Where to stop. 4 - Applying this to losing signals as well as winners (not cherry picking). If you do this better than I do, I'd be interested in how you do it and your rational for it. I'm also interested in well thought out explanations of mistakes I make/areas I can improve, as long as it's comprehensive. I'm not the best I can be. I want to get better. I am very keen to learn where I can. I always deeply consider constructive critics and ideas based on what I do (or things others do).
WolfpackBOT - The World's Fastest Crypto Trading Bot https://preview.redd.it/s5j8hgsgsi131.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0e5597fa32aa74f78fcfbb5cc08d143f8b8ca3b There are basically two different ways you can make mazuma from digital currencies. You can purchase a couple of coins currently, hold them for an extensive period and offer them after the esteem has risen significantly or you can get started with exchanging digital forms of money, here once more, you can exchange physically or run with the best crypto exchanging bots. While holding cryptographic money for a more drawn out term has turned out to be fulfilling, it takes a bounty of time and tolerance for you to optically observe the estimation of your speculation increase.If you are somebody, who does not have the persistence to hang tight for so long, at that point digital currency trading provides you with the immaculate chance to make some mazuma. Numerous prosperous digital currency dealers do recommend you purchase low and sell high. In any case, this is easier verbalized than done. Digital currencies have been cosmically unpredictable since the earliest reference point. They are the main tradable resources whose esteem shifts in twofold digit rates every day. The cost does not generally go up either. Along these lines, timing the market is the way to turning into a prosperous cryptographic money merchant. Exchanging digital money isn't any advanced science. All you require is a record on a digital money trade and some cryptographic money in your wallet. This would have been the situation, had you started exchanging these computerized resources route in 2010. Presently, on the off chance that you try to put in any limitation request on any famous cryptographic money trade, you will outwardly see another application set appropriate above you're, putting forth a superior arrangement. Hence, you are constrained to put orders at market esteem. The way that a superior offer quickly negated your offer does not assign that somebody is continually crushing before the PC. You just set off crypto exchanging bot when you submitted your request. The best bitcoin exchanging bots have surmounted the whole cryptographic money exchanging biological system, and this is primarily because of the way that they are more effective than people, particularly when it comes down to exchanging. Presently that you ken that bots have surmounted the crypto exchanging market, you more likely than not understood as of now that the chances of making mazuma when piled facing a great many bots are cosmically svelte. You could ace all the distinctive specialized investigation strategies and exceed the bots. In any case, in addition to the fact that this is tedious withal very tedious. So instead of investing more energy finding out about the specialized investigation, you can set up the crypto exchanging bots all alone. By the end of this article, not exclusively will you ken probably the most profitably rewarding cryptographic money exchanging bots out there, yet moreover will be enabled with the intelligence of winnowing your very own exchanging bot later on. Variables to Look for When Culling the Best Crypto Trading Bots
A standout amongst the most vital viewpoints to consider is the dependability of an exchanging bot. You would not operate to lose on a brilliant open door because your crypto bot went disconnected or stopped working for quite a while. You may contend that there is no real way to make sure about the dependability of a specific exchanging bot. Notwithstanding, you aren't the just a single using a bot. Scan for what alternate clients who have used a particular bot need to verbally express about its consistent quality or basically allude to our rundown of the best bitcoin exchanging bots underneath.
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Simplicity of profit
The entire cogency of running with a robotized bitcoin exchanging is to make the whole procedure of transferring cryptographic forms of money simple for everybody. A bot which accompanies a simple to use interface is the one that is exceptionally well known. Having the capacity to control the bots with only a couple of snaps of the mouse is something you should pay individual mind to, in the bot that you choose to use. Considering every one of the variables we have arranged a rundown of the best ten digital currency exchanging bots in 2019, the review will be unendingly refreshed with the goal that data remains apropos. Top 10 Best Crypto Trading Bots in 2019
This may be a new bot in the crypto exchanging market. In any case, this newcomer has figured out how to blow some people's minds because of the comprehensive exhibit of highlights that this bot gives. One of the defeats of most exchanging bots is that they kept running on your neighborhood machine. This betokens they run just when you have turned on your PC. With the lift in enthusiasm for cloud-predicated advancements, Cryptohopper uses cloud innovation to keep the bot running day in and day out. By running the bot on a cloud, clients will most likely put in exchange requests notwithstanding amid the night. In this manner, no open door is missed. Another critical reason that prompted the lift in the notoriety of Cryptohopper is its simplicity of usage, particularly for the tyro. The bot has incorporated with an outside exchanging signaller. This assigns anybody can initiate using this bot by running it on autopilot. This is a help to the nascent dealers, who need not stress over setting exchanging signals for their bot. The bot withal gives progressively experienced clients a chance to mess around and set their own exchanging signals. Along these lines, it is satisfying the desiderata of both. Aside from this, the bot is incidentally outfitted with highlights, for example, trailing stops, specialized examination, formats, and backtesting. Formats benefit you to design a nascent setting for your bot quickly, and specialized investigation sanctions you to redo and arrange your own settings. Like every extraordinary thing, the crypto container comes with a sticker price fastened to it. The cost starts from $19 every month for the fundamental arrangement and goes up to $99 per month if you operate their most extravagant arrangement. When you buy into any of the organizations, you can start using the bot on prominent trades like Binance, Huboi, Kucoin, Bittrex, Coinbase, Poloniex, Kraken, Cryptopia, and Bitfinex. On the off chance that you are slanted to spend the additional buck on an exchanging bot, at that point Cryptohopper is an extraordinary separate.
Even though 3Commas bot is nascent to the exchanging bot scene, it could give its clients huge increases, notwithstanding amid the crypto bear showcase. The new element that dissevers this bot from other bots is its workforce to trail any crypto advertise. This authorizes the bot to close the exchange at the most profitably excellent position, yet the objective addition set by the utilizer had just been come to. This element benefits enormously amid the crypto bull run. Additionally, the bot adventitiously endorses clients to exchange numerous cryptographic forms of money simultaneously. In this manner, it is not passing up any great exchanging opportunity that goes along the way. The bot is set up on the cloud and is available through the site. This betokens the bot runs 24X7. The bot can be designed with Binance and Bittrex at this moment and increasingly legitimate trades, for example, BitFinex, Poloniex, KuCoin, and so forth will be coordinated anon. The 3Commas comes with a sticker price appended to it. The starter plan will cost you $24, and the most luxurious genius pack would set you back by $82. On the off chance that you operate to give crypto bot exchanging a go, at that point, you could use the 3Commas starter plan and later peregrinate to the more rich schemes.
This is another mainstream exchanging bot with more than 6000 dynamic merchants using its lodging on a quotidian substructure. Good with a few exchanging stages including Binance and GDAX, it very well may be kept running on your nearby PC. This can keep running on Windows, Linus, and the Mac stages, so running on your neighborhood machine would not be a bind. The bot has 32 diverse pre-arranged exchanging systems which give clients a wide cluster of choices to induce some automated revenue. Among these techniques, the three most well-known ones are the Bollinger band, step addition, and ping pong. Numerous clients have detailed having made a bounty of benefits with the BB procedures. Gunbot isn't in freedom to use and accompanies a one-time level rate running from 0.1BTC to 0.3BTC, contingent upon the highlights that you would savor to optically observe in the bot. Aside from this, the bot supplementally comes as a Lite rendition that has encircled highlights yet can be habituated to test around with the lesser measure of mazuma. The post-buy support given by the organization is truly surprising. Clients get their issues settled in less than multi-day. The main pickle with regards to this bot is that you ought to in every case reliably outwardly look at the present market state. If the instability of the crypto advertise is high, at that point you ought to most likely turn the bot off to shun any misfortune
This is the most diverse digital money exchanging bot in subsistence at present. For any individual who needs to gain proficiency with some things about exchanging bots and not spend any mazuma getting one, at that point Gekko is the bot for you. The Gekko trading bot is an open source bitcoin exchanging bot venture that is accessible for anybody to use for nothing. The way that it is in freedom to use is the fundamental purpose behind its wide prevalence. Like some other open-source ventures, Gekko is free of for all intents and purposes all bugs and even the ones the pop are fixed up at lightning speeds. The Gekko bot can collaborate with a few trades, including Bitfinex, Polonix, and BitStamp. The bot uses a web interface to associate with the clients and can keep running on a neighborhood machine with Windows, Linux, or the Mac OS. The bot comes pre-designed with some exchanging system. You can initiate using the bot on autopilot as anon as you introduce and design it with a trade. In any case, if you would savor to use your very own exchanging system, the bot withal endorses you to design it to your savoring. While the present design is respectable for trying different things with the bot, there are a few other exchanging techniques accessible online that would benefit you make an all the more profitably worthwhile wager. The bot will withal send you a notice at whatever point it executes a specific exchange. This is finished by incorporating it with the Telegram envoy. Consequently, you will dependably ken how well your bot is performing. The main drawback to the Gekko exchanging bot is that it isn't very utilizer-heartfelt. There are a few aides in the digital world that direct you through the underlying setup process. Be that as it may, this procedure isn't extremely direct and you would presumably hit a barricade at any rate once amid the underlying setup.
Another allowed to use digital currency exchanging bot, Zenbot can be considered as a further developed form of the Gekko exchanging bot. Nonetheless, as Gekko has been around for a more extended time, it is all the more generally used. Much the same as Gekko, Zenbot programming can be downloaded from Github and introduced on your neighborhood PC. The product is perfect with Windows, Mac just as the Linux working frameworks. The bot comes pre-arranged with an entirely nice exchanging system. In any case, its real potential can be opened only when you initiate executing your exchanging order. The primary bind with the allowed to use bots is that they are frequently not very utilizer-genial. In any case, this isn't the situation with Zenbot. The entire setup process is extremely effortless, and you can have the bot fully operational in all respects speedily. The bot chips away at all prevalent trades, for example, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Bittrex, and so on. As it is an open source venture, it is without now of a few bugs, and regardless of whether one springs up, it will be adjusted all around speedily. The Zenbot can effortlessly actualize with a few informing stages, for example, slack, Telegram, and so on to give you the updates of any exchange that was executed. Adventitiously, the Zenbot withal braces high-recurrence exchanging. This is a component that outlined the personnel of the Gekko bot. The Zenbot is being refreshed, and more highlights are being incorporated traditionally. Hence, making it a bot for you to reliably outwardly analyze.
WolfpackBOT: WolfpackBOT is a cryptographic money exchanging programming application that has been created with the most developed highlights of any robotized exchanging programming of its sort. The WolfpackBOT has been intended to execute exchanging directions with the usage of restrictive numerical calculations, and specialized investigation bespeakers predicated on the client's predefined assignments.
The cryptographic money advertise as of now bearish, and many exchanging bots easily miss the scarcest vacillations. WolfpackBOT has been built to execute trading directions at a lightning speed and is fit for making up to a large number of exchanges every day, relying upon the states of the market. WolfpackBOT is among the few cryptographic money exchanging bots that give crypto aficionados full self-governance, security, and control of their exchanging bot and its related API keys. A large portion of the crypto trading bots out there are cloud-predicated stages that are constrained by outsider frameworks. While these stages guarantee dealers of outright wellbeing and security, insightful brokers ken that in the crypto space, outsider frameworks like trades and other cloud-predicated steps are hacked proximately consistently. Since WolfpackBOT programming and your related API keys are put away individually PC or devoted VPS, WolfpackBOT can sidestep a significant number of the security issues related to cloud-predicated frameworks. WolfpackBOT has been created for the whole crypto network, from experienced merchants to novices, with three in all respects reasonably valued membership levels. WolfpackBOT accompanies a few membership bundles that authorize clients to exchange with a wide scope of chances predicated on their favored membership.
cryptotrader_reviewAlmost all digital money merchants would have aurally seen about the crypto dealer exchanging bot. The across the board fame of this bot is because it was one of the absolute first bots to be kept running on the cloud and accessible to the clients day in and day out. The crypto broker bot is plenarily web-predicated and in this manner, open from anyplace you can associate with the digital world. The bot can be easily designed with a few well-known trades, for example, Poloniex, Bittrex, Kraken, and so on. This bot does not come for nothing out of pocket. You can operate from the few organizations accessible. The valuing initiates with 0.003BTC every month for the most simple arrangement and this goes up to 0.0472 BTC every month for their excellent arrangement. While all plans do offer clients support for programmed exchanging, the early highlights and as far as possible for the more indulgent plans is higher than that given the basic arrangement. Any early component that is caused is most readily accessible on the higher bundle designs and are later accessible on the basic plans. On the off chance that you would simply savor to exchange on a solitary trade and with exceptionally delineated mazuma, at that point the basic arrangement will get the job done. Be that as it may, on the off chance that you are outwardly looking at the higher volume of exchanges, at that point run with the higher bundle. This bot additionally sustains algorithmic exchanging. In this manner, I am making it effortless for clients to execute their very own arrangements. The bot can be effortlessly modified. In this manner, I am making it a broadly utilized cryptographic money exchanging bot.
btcrobotWe simply needed to incorporate the pioneer of digital currency exchanging bots on our rundown of the best crypto exchanging bots. The Bitcoin robot started as a Bitcoin exchanging bot. In any case, it can now withal be designed to exchange different digital currencies, for example, Ethereum and Litecoin. The bot is accessible as a product and should be downloaded and keep running on your neighborhood machine. This betokens the exchanges will be executed just as long as you keep your PC turned on. The bot can effortlessly work with a few digital money trades and is by and large broadly utilized even today. The bot isn't accessible free of expense and costs you a premium. The cost of the bot ranges from $19.99 every month for the principal plan. In any case, clients usually buy the platinum plan that costs just $399 one time charge and offers utilizer unlimited access to every one of the highlights. The benefits made by individuals using this bot verbalizes for itself. Supplementally, they do offer a 60-days mazuma back assurance. Along these lines, you should look at them once.
This can't be considered as a bot. In any case, the USI tech BTC settlement promises mechanized benefits for your BTC speculations. The USI Tech was at first intended for Forex exchanging. In any case, after the raise of the ubiquity of Bitcoin, they additionally offer BTC bundles. Not at all like some other BTC exchanging bot where you require to give the API key of your trade account to execute exchanges, on USI Tech, you will require to winnow from among the few BTC master exchanges. At that point, you will begin accepting your segment of benefits at whatever point exchange is made. The USI Tech stage basically ensures extraordinary comes back to your speculations. The entire procedure of purchasing your absolute first BTC bundle is withal simple and pellucidly elucidated on their site. You can explore different avenues regarding the benefits that you gain. In any case, the number of bundles you purchase, the more dominant will be your benefit
Margin.De (Leonardo Bot)
Edge LeonardobotThis is a cryptographic money exchanging bot with the most utilizer-genial interface. The GUI of the bot is easy to use, and the highlights gave are extremely puissant. The bot was structured with two exchanging techniques ping pong and Margin exchanging actualized into it. In any case, you can withal modify it with your very own custom settings. This bot lays incredible complement on the visual parts of exchanging. The specialized examination done by the bot is immensely simple to break down. What more? The bot has an astonishing component called visual exchanging. This interface feels rich smooth to use and offers clients the most extreme authority over the exchanges. The bot was at first evaluated at 0.5 BTC consistently. Notwithstanding, presently, it is accessible at a one-time cost extending from $89 to $1999 with the most elevated arrangement offering a bigger number of highlights than th
Strategy to Make 50% - 100% a Year Trading One Day a Week.
I feel a lot of times people can over think and try to over engineer making moderate annual gains in the Forex markets. Simple and low maintenance strategies can be devised to do this. If someone said to me, "Hey, I've got $10 million and want 15% a year . I don't want to be in the market more than 3 hours a week". I'd say, "I got this. Give me close of New York session on Friday to 2 hours before the market close. Easy gig." In this post I will teach you how. I will also post setups and track results from strategy on Friday's that qualify. Since I am not doing this for a pedantic millionaire investor, I'll use the whole of Friday for my trades. With this I think I should be able to beat 50% on 1% risk per position. There are specific qualifiers needed going into Friday to trigger this strategy. It will not trade every week. Only when there is a trend present and we are either in a trending week or near the end of a corrective week. Here is what a corrective week tends to look like. https://preview.redd.it/dtdwbsjt74i31.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=37030c3d5e4aad34812ab806addb5e34e948b525 You can sync up this with real price action in what has been (and still is) a corrective week in GBPUSD. Setting Up Approaching Final High When we see this, we have a really easy trade looking to buy London open area at a 61.8% retracement. There are multiple reasons this trade could work. Lots of different ways a strategy can pick up this trade (I won't cover these here, if you look through my post history I cover them extensively). Here is the area on this chart I will be looking to trade. Entry Area Let's look closer at the trades when we have this set up. I said buy 61.8, but that is too arbitrary. Working one day a week here, should pretend to look busy, huh. https://preview.redd.it/lwtj73tia4i31.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=444c8d13d15c8b8f3ea5402ec35cb46c63be1440 So we're looking for the 61.8 retracement for around London. This is where the strategy can potentially come active. This trade may or may not be taken, it depends on a few things. Honestly, one of them is I might sleep in. Others are more professional ... promise. When there has been this failed new high move, it's on. I always want the following trade. Here we're looking for a 61.8 retrace from the failed new high swing. A bounce from there, and then pending order can be placed to enter on a retest of there. This is what I consider to be a strong signal. I can use tight stops here and get good RR. I expect a strong move from this area. When it breaks out of the high and runs a little, I'll close half my profit and trail stops to protect running profits. I will wait and watch for the market contracting and starting to make a messy range. I'll then look for it to start to pull back and look like it's going to start to correct the move of the day. I will look to buy into this move and expect to see price spiking. Not trying to "time the market" or anything, but it's probably going to be 90 to 120 minutes before the market closes this happens. For trending weeks, I'll be using the same sort of execution rules and trading patterns. he prerequisite price action I want to see will be there having been a new high/low in the trend made by Thursday. I'll then be looking for a retrace of that and the market running out the end of the week with a final trend move. https://preview.redd.it/5u0qyoeec4i31.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=986aa1b123f98e24aec8c23da2dd8651417a8c85 Part 2 https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cufic1/strat_for_50_100_a_year_more_details_first_trade/
Forecasting the End of Major Corrections, and Accumulating Trend Trading Positions.
A prerequisite post to this post can be read here; https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/ It will also be beneficial to read this; https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/ Before getting into the meat of things, you need to understand the 'elastic band' effect of large moves in the market. What this means is most of the time before a market starts to make a big move in the direction it is ultimately going, it will make a strong and usually fast counter move. You know this already in a way. You've been taught from early on (I assume) that pin bars (hammers etc) are indications the market is reversing. You're told the wicks are formed by price pushing into an area and being rejected from it. In a trend formation, this is what the intra-week price action would tend to look like when there is the formation of reversal candles at the close of the weekly timeframe. https://preview.redd.it/nv1nbk0c9th31.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=f87d94ee33f0d07cde211c05d9234a236a487309 Here we would have been in a down trend and then for a week or two seen bullish momentum. The blue swing is the "elastic band" move. Or what I like to call the "ping swing". The formation I have drawn here is not arbitrary. A lot of specific things are going on in this chart. Here I've highlighted the relevant ones. When we've seen all of these, we know there is a good chance we have reached the end of a C leg correction (read up on basic Elliot wave theory if you do not understand this terminology). https://preview.redd.it/8u9bg43nath31.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ddb04a27b9a99ddbcaab5eef4e3ca7eea78e000 There can be variance in the 4 and 5 area. I am being polite, I should be honest. This area is often a bitch to trade in. Sometimes there are deep retracements and sometimes they are really shallow. Personally I've not been able to find ways to get strong ideas of how to forecast which is more likely. It tends to be an area I lose money and one I continue to work on trying to develop better ways of dealing with. Here are examples of each type from trades I've taken recently. https://preview.redd.it/6n0x4k43cth31.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=f03fdbff3176e1df36727f3606dbf6fc67912e53 This is explained in more context at https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cks8q1/shorting_noobs_problems_proofs_and_fine_tuning/ This chart is messy because a lot of positions are being taken rather than a specific strategy being followed, but as I've explained in the 'Shorting Noobs' series of posts, I am mot interested in trading off the 61.8% fib. https://preview.redd.it/97cb1x0wcth31.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=d49bbac385242184d9f9ba2708d1e9fe92efba42 Here is one with EURUSD that had very shallow sell-off then made the ping swing. https://preview.redd.it/dbiujru0fth31.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=277682a868af7cb2dc2b612243a8abfef54e9de0 You maybe thinking at this point, "But the range bit looks like it should be the 5". I know! I told you it's a bitch. As you can see here regardless of this I have still sold the best price. I am doing this by having a clear SR level I am forecasting in this sort of move. (Explained in more detail in the shorting noob series  ) Note, it is still entirely possible that this can make another ping swing and slightly spike out this high. If it does, we have a great opportunity. At this point, we are wiser to look for the better RR trade with trend continuation by considering we are possibly in this part of the move and we have the next (usually stronger than previous) sell off coming. https://preview.redd.it/15xd09pzfth31.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5e3a70fbc9411b36d74a7e32ebf5c1aabf1ad05 Which actually fits inside another cycle for a ping swing. https://preview.redd.it/31craqbkgth31.png?width=1018&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d7cc139aa406673213c62009220a3182e7e9e55 Here is a real time forecast of a ping swing we can watch for and set pending orders (or define areas to watch for reversal patterns) GBPUSD https://preview.redd.it/uz93cn53ith31.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b2d9a7fc12c961dafb7ee3cc7aa4c1aec29c927 (Ignore the buy trades on this, they are from a different type of strategy) This is a lot of information, and to intrinsically understand this you'd have to go over a lot of trending charts and watch how they have developed. I have spent a hell of a lot of time on this. I will round up with leaving you just a few simple rules we can take from understanding this general pattern that recurs in trends. Some of them will help you win, others will help to prevent you losing. 1 - When it starts to chop, it's time to stop. When a trend that has been in a free flowing form starts to get choppy, it's time to stop following the trend for the time being. You should be aware the next breakout(s) can be false ones, and the next shallow correction for a "Retest & continue" type trade is likely a trap. 2 - Big corrections rarely feature only one leg. When you see a really big move against the trend it gets really tempting to rejoin the trend once it starts to form price action reversal candles. Any time you're entering without the market having previously faked and then spiked out early sellers at least a couple of times, you have a more risky trade. 3 - Forecast where early sellers will lose. Quite simply, if you see a downtrend and then a spike up and what looks like the continuation of a downtrend you can assume there are sellers into what they think will be the new downtrend move. It's also quite likely these sellers have it very wrong on their stop area. It will be just above the previous highs and the consolation range. This is the very area we'd expect the ping swing to spike into and then make the proper trend move after whipsawing those who sold too early. Where they are getting stopped out, you want to be entering. Not sure where this is? Look in Forex forums, they'll tell you. 4 - Velocity does not mean victory! As price comes into the reversal area it will usually be carrying a lot of short term momentum and moving fast. Moving quickly into an area is not in any way an indication of a break of that area or a reversal. In fact, once you've identified where you think the ping swing will end, the more parabolic that move is into that area the better for the reversal trade. Plan ahead, do not be caught up in the moment. The moment will be deceptive. 5 - Have excellent exit plans on both sides of this sort of move. If the move fails, the counter move running against you can be persistent. Stop losses should be around 78% of the swing. Small spike outs of the 61.8% level are to be expected. Breaks of the 76% level are not. Similarly, profits can come lightening quickly. Which can actually be a problem if you've not planned the areas you want to exit or how to trail your stops. So be well prepared to exit before you enter. The things I have explained in this post have validity on all timeframes. I scalp with it, and I swing with it. It transfers readily to any market with trending properties. If you were to master this (especially at an intraday level - which is harder) , it would be highly likely you significantly beat what most people would think are "good returns" when the markets are trending. It would be possible for someone who has sufficient skill in doing this to make themselves substantial profits even starting from a small amount of money and using moderate risk over the course of just trading 4 - 5 major trend moves on daily and weekly charts. This is quite an easy setup in my opinion (once it's been highlighted at least) and for as long as you can find trends to use it, it will outperform most strategies I see on public display. (All bets are off in ranges. This will make a mockery of you if you try to do it in ranges) Happy trend following :)
Let's talk about the thing I see people rarely talking about in retail Forex. How people actually make multiple millions. How many people do you see talking about the practical nuts and bolts of how to make $10 million in Forex? None? Why not? Probably because they do not know. They know no-one who has, and they do not know the methodology to get into this position. A lot of people get caught up talking about thousands. Thousands is not a lot. I suppose it depends what you want to do in life, but thousands it thinking small. If you let yourself get into that perspective, you will then let yourself revise down your targets to make them more and more "realistic". Listen, and pay attention, the performance of the average people around you is only realistic to the average! Do not let them revise down your idea of realistic for you to make it match theirs. They do not know everything (even if they think they do, in which case they probably know even less). There is a guy I know of who has 15 years track record with no losing months ...none! He manages somewhere just a bit 3/4 billion USD, personally. He makes about 5% a month, of which he is paid an undisclosed fee (but I know it must be over 30%, because 30% was on offer for far less proven traders). Do the math! These elite traders are out there. If you choose not to believe that, okay .... you can go average. No problem. It can be easier to do this, it does not require a lot of improvement, nor self questioning. Whereas if you admit you are lagging far behind what you could be, you have to go "Holy fucking shit, I thought I was okay but I fucking suck!", then you have to get better, and that is hard. Only those of a strong nature tend to be able to face this in themselves and overcome it. Excuses are so much easier. So how does one get into asset management? In a word, metrics. Something to understand in trading, there is more good money looking for traders than there is good traders looking for money. Money will find you! I do not want to disclose too much of the I.P of some of the things I know of, but trust me, they know how to find you. If you have the right numbers, people will be in touch. Another good thing to do is to try to get some sort of in. Someone who likes you and will give you some of their time tips and the odd introduction here and there. This is the sort of thing that happens just through networking. Knowing here you want to go and trusting you will find a path there. I was fortunate. I was running a free signals group with some 10,000 + people in it. As it turned out, one of they people could allocate millions to investment and approached me offering me $500,000 to get started. A golden metric is your average monthly gain vrs your maximum equity draw-down. If you can make your maximum loss no more than double what your average monthly gain is over a substantial period of time, getting a few million under management is rather easy. One of the main reasons this metric is so important is traders who fit this criteria are unlikely to have a lot of losing quarters (and theoretically, a basket of traders fitting these metrics should not lose a quarter overall). Which is something in the forefront of the minds of many large investors. Next, repeatability. Methodology. You need to be doing the same thing. When a quant team runs your strategy, it has to make logical sense. They have to be able to see what you are doing and why it works. Assess the risks of that and how much it can be scaled up (ie, maximum funds it can support). Finally, gains. Of course you have to be making some profit. This is definitely secondary to the draw-down rule, though. Making gains with large draw-downs is suitable for small money, not for large. You have to understand draw-down includes running profits. So if a trade goes up 2% and then comes back to close at a 1% loss, you just lost 3%. This seems harsh, and it is kinda, but it is the way this is assessed. Losing profits is losing. You have to be very proficient in capping losses. These things are not easy. There are various technical and psychological challenges to overcome to be able to do this. That is why it pays so much. It is hard. It is unobtainable for the average person. Many people do not even think in the right format to go about making a half decent effort at this. These golden ideals need to be built into the strategy used. What you do needs to be intentionally shaped to be suitable for this. If any of you are able to meet such standards, I can most likely provide you with an in for this sort of money management. Hook you up with people that can give you $100,000 to test the waters and scale up dramatically after that. You will need 6 - 9 months of good trading behind you to be considered for this. With 6-9 months good trading, you can be watch listed by people who it is worth having watching you. So ... let's see who has what it takes. If anyone thinks they can work towards being able to meet these metrics, link up a new account, set up Myfxbook tracking and see if you can produce the numbers. If you are making a good effort but not quite getting it, I can help you with some tips to further improve that. To help with this, I will provide you an example and benchmark strategy I trade. As always, I will make my account data entirely public, so you can see all the trades. I will be using an extremely selective strategy that will be based upon this strategy here https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/aet6am/the_best_single_trade_on_the_market_imo/ I will add a few extra filters to my entry, to lower my draw-down and increase my win rate. I will use fractionally low risk, and look for large RR trades, with good stop trailing to prevent equity draw-down. This is literally one trade. A single trade that anyone can learn. You can make a million mastering a single trade. Indeed, many people who have made millions in trading done so by doing just that. Not many people in the retail market seem to know that. Few people really know the logistics of how people make a lot of money. You can make a million in a few years doing this. Absolutely inside of five years. All it takes is a concerted effort directed towards the right ideals. Do not let others tell you this can not be done, people are doing it and people are saying it can not be done. Think carefully about what camp you want to be in. It is your choice.
Quick background for those new here. This started with me saying that if a person gets suitable good at entering the market and finding places to get high RR trades, it is entirely possible to flip small amounts of money into larger ones relatively quickly. To demonstrate this, I said Id flip $40-50 into over $1,000 over a year and link up Myfxbook to track all my trades. I’d also run versions of the strategy with the info posted for people to log into the accounts, see the trades and copy them if they want (see ForexCopy). The first one I bust on day one. I tried to do it really quickly ($1,000 in a week or so from $40). I got up around 200% - 250% and then zero’d it. The trades I lost in where not really good opportunities, and I as overly aggressive with them. Was dumb. The second one I tried running via a copy trader, it messed up early trades and vitaly went bust in the opening hours (I do not think it ever went into profit). The “I can flip $40 to $1,000 as long as I can keep reloading $40s” challenge is far less impressive. So, I have been reloading that account with tiny amounts, trying to get from $2 or so up to a more useful equity figure. I have failed doing this various times, but it has been down to accuracy being less sharp that it may have been rather than this not being viable. This is viable. It is fucking hard. Don’t get me wrong. Entering the market when you have 5 - 7 pips before you get margin called is tricky. Kinda fun, too. Good training in getting entries. With a couple good entries, though, entirely viable. $2 can get to $5, $5 can get to $15 and that is enough pips at 0.01 to have a damn good cracking at catching some big moves. Realistically, I think it only takes 10 really good trades to have a fairly useful bankroll. So let’s just write the $40 - $1,000 thing off. I bombed that. I am willing to up the ante. Rather than $40 - $1,000 over 12 months, I think I can do $2 or $3 to $5,000 in 18 months. This is contingent upon a couple things;
I may need to rebuy a few more times (although, maybe not).
I need the markets to trend in the nice structured way that currently are through the next year (or be super volatile and be well positioned for that).
This may sound outlandish and crazy, but the maths behind this are fairly solid. All it takes is catching a few 50 - 100 pip trades. A few of these can take $2 to $30, a few more and it is over $100. I can get 1:10 - 1:15 risk reward trades, and can increase risk:reward with in-trade management and adding positions (or hedging positions in profit). So using 5 - 10% risk in really prime opportunities, and it does not take many of them in a row to make some decent money compounding an account from $100. Technical Details on Margin Requirements You may be wondering how this can even be feasible. It may seem logical that even the best trader in the world could not get started from $2, but actually with the right brokerage conditions and pair selection, this can be done. I am using IC Markets. I have 1:500 leverage. Commission per trade is 0.6 of a lot (so, about $0.04-0.06 per trade with my position sizes). My spreads are usually under a pip. They sometimes go to zero spread. Pair selection. NZD and JPY are the lowest margin requirement currencies, and these can trend well. So I focus on these for starting out. I am trading NZDJPY, I require $1.33 margin to open 0.01 lots. So this means if I close all my trades and have under $1.33 I can not open any more trades. However, my stop out level is 50% of my margin requirements. So I get stopped out when I have $0.65 equity. This gives me about 15 pips from $2. I can also hedge this, and can use ways to manipulate margin requirements to get the most bang for my buck (which can be good or bad, it goes both ways, but it gives me more options). So with these settings, to take $2 to $10 is not all that hard. Catch 50 pips or so a couple times without the first trade drawing down 10+ pips. With $10, I have 100 pips at 0.01 (or the option of far more creative positioning), I think 100 pips is plenty margin for error to get into a few good trades and get going. I’ve pinned the Myfxbook for this to start from today (16th January 2019) since this is the first day I am taking this seriously. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/40-1000/2893650 Deposit $1.50 + account balance $0.65 = Slightly over $2 to start. The net deposit on this account is now around $66. Update. I want to quash this idea that the only way someone can make large returns in FX is using reckless risk and gambling. Obviously many people do this ,but some just know ways to get far more reward for their risks. Here is a trade I am. I had about $3.50 equity when opening the first two trades. 5 pips and 2 pips stops. I was risking about $0.50. https://preview.redd.it/ljohtjwqdwa21.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=24d62c7296c8afdc15907dbe42a18a37f389e1fd Then as the move has developed, I have adjusted my stops and added to the position. I am targeting 60 pips or so here, about $20 pay off. I have nothing at risk now. I will end the trade really close to breakeven, if not slightly up. I have turned $0.50 risk into potentially $20 profit, and done this in the space of 10 pips. **I am not saying this is easy**. It has taken me years of studying price moves to know how, and far more importantly when to do this. I am saying it something that can be learned, and when applied well ... can be surprisingly profitable. Update. https://preview.redd.it/1jptz02cfwa21.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8af8bd06a16058ae2369fe634215116d806fc31 Now I have set hedging orders on an area I know price often pulls back from. If it pulls back to the level I expect, I can exit the hedges and have the buy stops under there. If it then goes higher, I banked an extra X% on the gain with the hedges. I have set a hedging order above the high for if price blows through the take profits (making me short) and continues upwards. The worse case scenario sees me lose rather little, the best case (price filling take profits and then coming down to make the sells profitable, or the price retracing so the sells are profitable then it making a high) yield substantial profit potential. Piling up potential profit, without adding on much potential risk. Update. https://preview.redd.it/v70pqc9qiwa21.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=a252499e2dc4f5ffc782fb6e44ffc5d8b8fb0fa6 Then I use the rules of the Extreme Edge strategy to trail stops. To get my line in the sand. I now have locked in a profti (albeit small) and can potentially make somewhere in the $25 - $30 range or perhaps more from my $0.50 risk. https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/af15l9/extreme_edge_strategy_detailed/ Update. This never worked out (I screwed it up). It is a lot harder with $2 on a 1 minute chart whilst posting live updates. However later you will see how I can take these same principles that can make $0.50 risk into $20 and use them to get into positions where $10 risk can be $300. Or where $100 can be several thousand. Update. So I was a bit early on that move, but this is what it looks like when it works. Occasions to position like this happen fairly frequently. I can get myself into these positions where I am risking a nominal amount for much larger gains many times in a day. I can take the same principles and apply them to weekly charts and position for "flash crashes", and other volatile moves. This is obviously on an account with more equity, I got margin called on the small one, will try again tomorrow. I was probably 2 pips away from going to $2 to close to $100 today (assuming the trades come through as I think). Will be abl to check what it could have been. If I'd hit the first trade, it would have mirrored the trades in the account that is copying my account *2 risk. If these swings hit, this account may make about $50 in them. Which will put it up about 100% (trading only 2x 0.01 at any time) since we fixed the margin/FIFO copying issues. Bit early to be counting chickens, but we'll see. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drcherrypoppemt4-9084923/2910254 https://preview.redd.it/xhqv5tf55za21.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=e63d97b4d7ef32573071afff3c31f67a98f725e6
I mean, do you know about scaling trades? That’s for another time, again covered in our free course, but if you want to get the best out of your trades – you have to stop being a beginner. Why is this all relevant to finding out what is a trailing stop in forex? Because trailing stops is an automated way of active management. Trailing stops. News & Analysis at your fingertips. Install ... to examine how a trailing stop may work in our favor. The chart below depicts our initial entry to sell the EURJPY at 103.27. To ... What all this means, is that mechanical trailing stops applied to mechanical Forex trading systems, will almost certainly produce inferior returns compared to taking profits at set targets based upon reward to risk ratios of 2 or higher. Adam Lemon. Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other ... Why use a trailing stop loss? Let’s be honest. You and I both can’t predict how long a trend will last. But what you can do is, use a trailing stop loss and take what the market offers you. Disadvantages of Trailing Stop Loss. Now here’s the truth: Most of the time (even if you use a trailing stop loss), you’ll not ride a trend. Forex Trading Trailing Stop Strategy Example . Here is an example, let's say that you want to go long on EUR/USD, and you set an emergency stop that will be triggered if the market ultimately moves against you. After a day or so, the trade is completely in your favor, so you want to lock in some profit and see what happens. Trailing stops by candlesticks could work extremely well when combo’d with Renko charts too… A well placed candlestick trailing stop set on a Renko chart that catches a nice move. An awesome set and forget way to ride our the core trend movement. The candlestick trailing stop strategy has a lot of potential as it works with the price action. You will find they are probably going to perform ... Trailing stops work best when the market is moving in the direction of profit. For this reason sometimes it’s better to use what’s called a conditional trailing stop. With this method the trailing stop only triggers when a certain condition is met. Otherwise the standard stop and take profit is kept. The “condition” is usually based on the market direction. Momentum based conditions ...